Back to UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
Main Bantamweight

Cody Garbrandt vs Raoni Barcelos

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley ·State Farm Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Cody Garbrandt
Raoni Barcelos
37% 63%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
34
Age
Δ 4y
38
15-8
Career record
Δ 17 pp
23-5
L1
Current streak
W2
15
UFC fights in our DB
12

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Garbrandt: 28 sig / 0 TD · Barcelos: 37 sig / 1 TD
Cody Garbrandt
Raoni Barcelos
41
Sig strikes landed
61
94
Sig strikes attempted
106
43
Total strikes landed
79
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
23s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Cody Garbrandt

"No Love"
15-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
L UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
L UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
Blue corner
W2

Raoni Barcelos

23-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—