Prelims1
Welterweight
Michael Chiesa vs Court McGee
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Chiesa
Court McGee
69%
31%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
38
Age
Δ 3y
40
21-7
Career record
Δ 12 pp
24-14
W2
Current streak
W1
20
UFC fights in our DB
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Chiesa: 72 sig / 0 TD ·
McGee: 39 sig / 0 TD
Michael Chiesa
Court McGee
38
Sig strikes landed
33
87
Sig strikes attempted
113
60
Total strikes landed
62
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
5.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
239s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
21-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
20 fights · 13-7
Last 5
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
W1
Court McGee
"The Crusher"
24-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
23 fights · 11-12
Last 5
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—