Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paul Craig
Rodolfo Bellato
29%
71%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
38
Age
Δ 8y
29
17-11-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
13-3-2
L3
Current streak
D1
19
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 1
Craig: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Bellato: 10 sig / 1 TD
Paul Craig
Rodolfo Bellato
36
Sig strikes landed
44
73
Sig strikes attempted
85
44
Total strikes landed
80
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
97s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17-11-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
19 fights · 9-9
Last 5
L
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
L
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
D1
Rodolfo Bellato
"Trator"
13-3-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-0
Last 2
D
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—