Back to UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Kris Moutinho

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley ·State Farm Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Malcolm Wellmaker
Kris Moutinho
72% 28%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
11-2
Career record
Δ 24 pp
14-9
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Wellmaker: 25 sig / 0 TD · Moutinho: 6 sig / 0 TD
Malcolm Wellmaker
Kris Moutinho
40
Sig strikes landed
28
98
Sig strikes attempted
77
43
Total strikes landed
31
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
44s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Malcolm Wellmaker

"The Machine"
11-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry …
—
Blue corner
L2

Kris Moutinho

14-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
L UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—