Prelims1
Featherweight
Yadier del Valle vs Connor Matthews
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yadier del Valle
Connor Matthews
78%
22%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
del Valle: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Matthews: 3 sig / 0 TD
Yadier del Valle
Connor Matthews
45
Sig strikes landed
31
87
Sig strikes attempted
72
64
Total strikes landed
38
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
181s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Yadier del Valle
"The Cuban Problem"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
Blue corner
L2
Connor Matthews
"The Controller"
7-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
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