Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jared Gordon
Thiago Moises
55%
45%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
37
Age
Δ 7y
30
21-10
Career record
Δ 1 pp
20-10
L1
Current streak
W1
15
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Gordon: 7 sig / 1 TD ·
Moises: 5 sig / 0 TD
Jared Gordon
Thiago Moises
56
Sig strikes landed
45
89
Sig strikes attempted
96
80
Total strikes landed
56
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.3
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
183s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
21-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
15 fights · 8-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
Blue corner
W1
Thiago Moises
20-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
14 fights · 8-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—