Main
Middleweight
Dustin Stoltzfus vs Nursulton Ruziboev
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dustin Stoltzfus
Nursulton Ruziboev
17%
83%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
17-8
Career record
Δ 9 pp
37-9-2
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Stoltzfus: 21 sig / 2 TD ·
Ruziboev: 35 sig / 1 TD
Dustin Stoltzfus
Nursulton Ruziboev
21
Sig strikes landed
31
45
Sig strikes attempted
69
28
Total strikes landed
39
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.8
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
130s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
14%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Dustin Stoltzfus
17-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
Blue corner
W1
Nursulton Ruziboev
"Black"
37-9-2
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—