Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Julian Erosa
Melquizael Costa
50%
50%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
36
Age
Δ 7y
29
32-14
Career record
Δ 8 pp
27-8
W3
Current streak
W3
16
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Erosa: 69 sig / 3 TD ·
Costa: 102 sig / 2 TD
Julian Erosa
Melquizael Costa
51
Sig strikes landed
49
114
Sig strikes attempted
110
65
Total strikes landed
60
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
65s
Control time
180s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
32-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
W
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
Blue corner
W3
Melquizael Costa
"The Dalmatian"
27-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erc…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—