Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Elise Reed
Denise Gomes
26%
74%
Why
63"
Reach
63"
32
Age
Δ 7y
25
9-5
Career record
Δ 17 pp
13-3
W1
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Reed: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Gomes: 28 sig / 3 TD
Elise Reed
Denise Gomes
34
Sig strikes landed
46
77
Sig strikes attempted
100
47
Total strikes landed
74
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.6
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
67s
Control time
250s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Elise Reed
9-5
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
L
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
Blue corner
W2
Denise Gomes
"Dee"
13-3
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—