Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
HyunSung Park
Carlos Hernandez
75%
25%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
11-2
Career record
Δ 16 pp
11-5
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Park: 14 sig / 1 TD ·
Hernandez: 4 sig / 0 TD
HyunSung Park
Carlos Hernandez
44
Sig strikes landed
40
110
Sig strikes attempted
88
62
Total strikes landed
47
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
211s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
HyunSung Park
"Peace of Mind"
11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—
Blue corner
W1
Carlos Hernandez
11-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figuei…
—
L
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—