Main
Bantamweight
Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mario Bautista
Patchy Mix
55%
45%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
W7
Current streak
—
11
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bautista: 173 sig / 0 TD ·
Mix: 122 sig / 0 TD
Mario Bautista
Patchy Mix
55
Sig strikes landed
39
103
Sig strikes attempted
94
72
Total strikes landed
53
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.9
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
158s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Mario Bautista
18-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
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W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
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W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
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W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
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Blue corner
Patchy Mix
"No Love"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32