Back to UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Main Middleweight

Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 ·Prudential Center
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Kelvin Gastelum
Joe Pyfer
41% 59%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
22-11
Career record
Δ 18 pp
17-3
W1
Current streak
W1
23
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gastelum: 33 sig / 0 TD · Pyfer: 57 sig / 1 TD
Kelvin Gastelum
Joe Pyfer
45
Sig strikes landed
50
82
Sig strikes attempted
112
61
Total strikes landed
62
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
64s
Control time
57s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Kelvin Gastelum

22-11 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 23 fights · 13-9
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
W UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1

Joe Pyfer

"Bodybagz"
17-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—