Back to UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Main Welterweight

Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 ·Prudential Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Vicente Luque
Kevin Holland
51% 49%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
81"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
25-12-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
30-15
W1
Current streak
W1
22
UFC fights in our DB
25

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Luque: 24 sig / 0 TD · Holland: 40 sig / 1 TD
Vicente Luque
Kevin Holland
61
Sig strikes landed
61
97
Sig strikes attempted
120
75
Total strikes landed
69
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
123s
Control time
62s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Vicente Luque

"The Silent Assassin"
25-12-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 22 fights · 16-6
Last 5
W UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
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L UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
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W UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
L UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill
—
L UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
Blue corner
W1

Kevin Holland

"Trailblazer"
30-15 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 25 fights · 14-10
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Br…
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L UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
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L UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
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W UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—
L UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—