🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Bantamweight
Julianna Pena vs Kayla Harrison
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Julianna Pena
Kayla Harrison
31%
69%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
36
Age
Δ 1y
35
14-6
Career record
Δ 25 pp
20-1
W1
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Pena: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Harrison: 30 sig / 2 TD
Julianna Pena
Kayla Harrison
42
Sig strikes landed
56
101
Sig strikes attempted
99
61
Total strikes landed
96
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
93s
Control time
281s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Julianna Pena
"The Venezuelan Vixen"
14-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
Blue corner
W2
Kayla Harrison
20-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—