🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Merab Dvalishvili
Sean O'Malley
56%
44%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
34
Age
Δ 4y
31
22-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
19-4
W8
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Dvalishvili: 52 sig / 5 TD ·
O'Malley: 31 sig / 0 TD
Merab Dvalishvili
Sean O'Malley
68
Sig strikes landed
80
148
Sig strikes attempted
165
95
Total strikes landed
90
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
10.8
Takedowns attempted
-0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
267s
Control time
17s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
22-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
14 fights · 12-2
Last 5
W
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
—
W
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
Blue corner
L1
Sean O'Malley
"Suga"
19-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 10-2
Last 5
L
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—