Prelims1
Flyweight
Jafel Filho vs Allan Nascimento
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jafel Filho
Allan Nascimento
49%
51%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
18-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
23-6
W2
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Filho: 14 sig / 4 TD ·
Nascimento: 12 sig / 1 TD
Jafel Filho
Allan Nascimento
19
Sig strikes landed
20
42
Sig strikes attempted
37
35
Total strikes landed
42
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.0
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
166s
Control time
203s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jafel Filho
"Pastor"
18-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
Blue corner
W2
Allan Nascimento
"Puro Osso"
23-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—