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Jeremy Stephens vs Mason Jones

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo ·Wells Fargo Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jeremy Stephens
Mason Jones
20% 80%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
39
Age
Δ 9y
30
29-24
Career record
Δ 31 pp
18-3
L5
Current streak
L1
26
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Stephens: 42 sig / 0 TD · Jones: 81 sig / 8 TD
Jeremy Stephens
Mason Jones
60
Sig strikes landed
62
143
Sig strikes attempted
125
76
Total strikes landed
91
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
116s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L5

Jeremy Stephens

"Lil' Heathen"
29-24 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 26 fights · 11-14
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
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L UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
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L UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
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L UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
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L UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
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Blue corner
L1

Mason Jones

"The Dragon"
18-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 4 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
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W UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
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L UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
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