Main
Welterweight
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Daniel Rodriguez
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo
·Wells Fargo Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Daniel Rodriguez
72%
28%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
39
Age
Δ 0y
38
32-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
21-5
W1
Current streak
W1
19
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Ponzinibbio: 49 sig / 1 TD ·
Rodriguez: 66 sig / 0 TD
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Daniel Rodriguez
78
Sig strikes landed
81
177
Sig strikes attempted
165
85
Total strikes landed
85
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
59s
Control time
42s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Santiago Ponzinibbio
"Argentine Dagger"
32-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
19 fights · 12-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
Blue corner
W1
Daniel Rodriguez
"D-Rod"
21-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Tai…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—