Back to UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Prelims1 Lightweight

Evan Elder vs Gauge Young

UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates ·T-Mobile Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Evan Elder
Gauge Young
51% 49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
W2
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elder: 115 sig / 0 TD · Young: 81 sig / 0 TD
Evan Elder
Gauge Young
50
Sig strikes landed
47
102
Sig strikes attempted
101
66
Total strikes landed
60
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
107s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Evan Elder

"The Phenom"
11-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
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W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
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L UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Bl…
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L UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
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Blue corner

Gauge Young

"Gee Money"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25