Prelims1
Flyweight
Matt Schnell vs Jimmy Flick
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
·T-Mobile Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Matt Schnell
Jimmy Flick
52%
48%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
35
Age
Δ 1y
35
17-11
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-10
L3
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Schnell: 35 sig / 0 TD ·
Flick: 12 sig / 5 TD
Matt Schnell
Jimmy Flick
33
Sig strikes landed
32
72
Sig strikes attempted
71
45
Total strikes landed
50
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
0.7
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
80s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
43%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
17-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 6-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
L1
Jimmy Flick
"The Brick"
17-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—