Prelims1
Featherweight
Chris Gutierrez vs John Castaneda
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
·T-Mobile Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Chris Gutierrez
John Castaneda
53%
47%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 4"
71"
34
Age
Δ 1y
33
23-7-2
Career record
Δ 4 pp
21-9-1
W1
Current streak
L1
13
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Gutierrez: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Castaneda: 41 sig / 1 TD
Chris Gutierrez
John Castaneda
68
Sig strikes landed
64
141
Sig strikes attempted
132
78
Total strikes landed
77
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
56s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Gutierrez
"El Guapo"
23-7-2
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
W
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
Blue corner
L1
John Castaneda
"Sexi Mexi"
21-9-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—