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Main Welterweight

Randy Brown vs Nicolas Dalby

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Randy Brown
Nicolas Dalby
53% 47%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
35
Age
Δ 6y
40
20-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
24-7-1
L1
Current streak
L1
19
UFC fights in our DB
13

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Brown: 54 sig / 0 TD · Dalby: 26 sig / 0 TD
Randy Brown
Nicolas Dalby
61
Sig strikes landed
58
134
Sig strikes attempted
125
73
Total strikes landed
79
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.6
Takedowns attempted
5.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
95s
Control time
202s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
7%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Randy Brown

"Rudeboy"
20-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 19 fights · 13-6
Last 5
L UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
W UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
W UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
W UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Top…
L UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
Blue corner
L1

Nicolas Dalby

"Lokomotivo"
24-7-1 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 13 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
W UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
W UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
W UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
W UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…