Main
Lightweight
Benoit Saint Denis vs Kyle Prepolec
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
·Bell Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Benoit Saint Denis
Kyle Prepolec
86%
14%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
29
Age
Δ 6y
36
17-4
Career record
Δ 19 pp
18-11
L2
Current streak
L2
8
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Saint Denis: 54 sig / 3 TD ·
Prepolec: 12 sig / 0 TD
Benoit Saint Denis
Kyle Prepolec
52
Sig strikes landed
41
118
Sig strikes attempted
107
70
Total strikes landed
56
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
174s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Benoit Saint Denis
"God of War"
17-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs.…
—
Blue corner
L2
Kyle Prepolec
"Killshot"
18-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—