Main
Women's Flyweight
Alexa Grasso vs Natalia Silva
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
·Bell Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Alexa Grasso
Natalia Silva
44%
56%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
17-6-1
Career record
Δ 7 pp
21-5-1
L1
Current streak
W6
13
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Grasso: 45 sig / 0 TD ·
Silva: 65 sig / 0 TD
Alexa Grasso
Natalia Silva
69
Sig strikes landed
73
166
Sig strikes attempted
150
87
Total strikes landed
94
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
96s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alexa Grasso
17-6-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
13 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
W
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
Blue corner
W6
Natalia Silva
21-5-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Im…
—
W
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—