Back to UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Navajo Stirling vs Ivan Erslan

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena ·Bell Centre
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Navajo Stirling
Ivan Erslan
70% 30%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
10-0
Career record
Δ 32 pp
15-7
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Stirling: 110 sig / 3 TD · Erslan: 36 sig / 0 TD
Navajo Stirling
Ivan Erslan
49
Sig strikes landed
40
91
Sig strikes attempted
90
89
Total strikes landed
65
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.1
Takedowns attempted
5.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
125s
Control time
191s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Navajo Stirling

10-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
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Blue corner
L1

Ivan Erslan

15-7 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
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