Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cutelaba
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
·Bell Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Modestas Bukauskas
Ion Cutelaba
70%
30%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
21-7
Career record
Δ 11 pp
21-11-1
W2
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Bukauskas: 44 sig / 0 TD ·
Cutelaba: 58 sig / 0 TD
Modestas Bukauskas
Ion Cutelaba
40
Sig strikes landed
30
85
Sig strikes attempted
68
47
Total strikes landed
42
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
83s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
21-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
Blue corner
W2
Ion Cutelaba
"The Hulk"
21-11-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
18 fights · 8-9
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—