Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Aiemann Zahabi
79%
21%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
39
Age
Δ 1y
38
32-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
15-2
L1
Current streak
W5
22
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aldo: 68 sig / 0 TD ·
Zahabi: 99 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Aiemann Zahabi
65
Sig strikes landed
62
138
Sig strikes attempted
133
75
Total strikes landed
72
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
91s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jose Aldo
32-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
22 fights · 14-8
Last 5
L
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—
L
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
W5
Aiemann Zahabi
"Icemann"
15-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—