Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tresean Gore
Marco Tulio
31%
69%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
31
Age
31
8-4
Career record
Δ 17 pp
15-3
W2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Gore: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Tulio: 127 sig / 0 TD
Tresean Gore
Marco Tulio
15
Sig strikes landed
27
43
Sig strikes attempted
49
14
Total strikes landed
37
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
58s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tresean Gore
"Mr. Vicious"
8-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Marco Tulio
"Matuto"
15-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas…
—