Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sumudaerji
Mitch Raposo
73%
27%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 8"
64"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
19-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
10-4
L3
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Sumudaerji: 45 sig / 0 TD ·
Raposo: 9 sig / 6 TD
Sumudaerji
Mitch Raposo
50
Sig strikes landed
31
97
Sig strikes attempted
70
71
Total strikes landed
45
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
129s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Sumudaerji
"The Tibetan Eagle"
19-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rod…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
Blue corner
L1
Mitch Raposo
10-4
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
—