Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Darren Elkins
Julian Erosa
48%
52%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
41
Age
Δ 5y
36
30-12
Career record
Δ 2 pp
32-14
W2
Current streak
W2
29
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Elkins: 13 sig / 1 TD ·
Erosa: 54 sig / 0 TD
Darren Elkins
Julian Erosa
34
Sig strikes landed
50
77
Sig strikes attempted
111
69
Total strikes landed
72
2.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
8.1
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
324s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
29 fights · 19-10
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Bar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
Blue corner
W2
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
32-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
15 fights · 8-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Nama…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—