Main
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov vs Dominick Reyes
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
·Kaseya Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nikita Krylov
Dominick Reyes
81%
19%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
77"
33
Age
Δ 2y
35
32-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
17-5
W3
Current streak
W2
18
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Krylov: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Reyes: 8 sig / 0 TD
Nikita Krylov
Dominick Reyes
40
Sig strikes landed
50
72
Sig strikes attempted
82
53
Total strikes landed
59
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
111s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
32-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
18 fights · 11-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
Blue corner
W2
Dominick Reyes
"The Devastator"
17-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—