Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Chandler
Paddy Pimblett
30%
70%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
39
Age
Δ 9y
30
23-11
Career record
Δ 18 pp
24-4
L2
Current streak
W6
6
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Chandler: 11 sig / 4 TD ·
Pimblett: 80 sig / 1 TD
Michael Chandler
Paddy Pimblett
38
Sig strikes landed
56
87
Sig strikes attempted
115
53
Total strikes landed
75
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.4
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
94s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Michael Chandler
"Iron"
23-11
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
L
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
Blue corner
W6
Paddy Pimblett
"The Baddy"
24-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—