🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes
·Kaseya Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexander Volkanovski
Diego Lopes
67%
33%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
28-5
Career record
Δ 7 pp
28-8
L2
Current streak
W5
16
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Volkanovski: 158 sig / 1 TD ·
Lopes: 63 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Volkanovski
Diego Lopes
83
Sig strikes landed
82
131
Sig strikes attempted
161
121
Total strikes landed
93
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
230s
Control time
41s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
28-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
16 fights · 13-3
Last 5
L
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
L
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
L
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanov…
—
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
Blue corner
W5
Diego Lopes
28-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—