Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Martin Buday
Uran Satybaldiev
65%
35%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
33
Age
Δ 3y
31
W1
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Buday: 58 sig / 0 TD ·
Satybaldiev: 36 sig / 0 TD
Martin Buday
Uran Satybaldiev
52
Sig strikes landed
37
89
Sig strikes attempted
78
76
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
133s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Martin Buday
"Badys"
17-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
Blue corner
Uran Satybaldiev
"Gorilla"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31