Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Victor Henry
Pedro Falcao
66%
34%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
38
Age
Δ 5y
33
25-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-6
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Henry: 73 sig / 2 TD ·
Falcao: 57 sig / 4 TD
Victor Henry
Pedro Falcao
58
Sig strikes landed
62
121
Sig strikes attempted
133
108
Total strikes landed
94
0.6
Takedowns landed
3.8
1.2
Takedowns attempted
16.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
75s
Control time
276s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Victor Henry
"La Mangosta"
25-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Switch
Age
38
In our database
6 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Alb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalis…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
L1
Pedro Falcao
"Pedrinho"
16-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—