Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Justin Gaethje
Rafael Fiziev
80%
20%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
27-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
13-6
L1
Current streak
L2
13
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gaethje: 72 sig / 0 TD ·
Fiziev: 68 sig / 2 TD
Justin Gaethje
Rafael Fiziev
79
Sig strikes landed
55
143
Sig strikes attempted
123
90
Total strikes landed
67
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
77s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
27-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
L
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Rafael Fiziev
"Ataman"
13-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gam…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—