🏆 Title fight
Main
Light Heavyweight
Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Alex Pereira
Magomed Ankalaev
35%
65%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
38
Age
Δ 5y
33
14-3
Career record
Δ 6 pp
22-2-1
W5
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Pereira: 76 sig / 0 TD ·
Ankalaev: 94 sig / 0 TD
Alex Pereira
Magomed Ankalaev
93
Sig strikes landed
53
155
Sig strikes attempted
111
83
Total strikes landed
75
-0.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.0
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
1s
Control time
184s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Alex Pereira
"Poatan"
14-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
10 fights · 9-1
Last 5
W
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree J…
—
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Magomed Ankalaev
22-2-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 11-1
Last 5
W
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
D
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—