Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joshua Van
Rei Tsuruya
68%
32%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
23
Age
Δ 1y
23
18-2
Career record
Δ 2 pp
12-1
W2
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Van: 59 sig / 0 TD ·
Tsuruya: 32 sig / 4 TD
Joshua Van
Rei Tsuruya
60
Sig strikes landed
43
82
Sig strikes attempted
82
66
Total strikes landed
64
0.8
Takedowns landed
2.2
0.5
Takedowns attempted
11.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
91s
Control time
320s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Joshua Van
"The Fearless"
18-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura
—
W
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. W…
—
W
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
—
Blue corner
W1
Rei Tsuruya
12-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—