Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
King Green
Mauricio Ruffy
58%
42%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
38
Age
Δ 10y
29
35-18-1
Career record
Δ 23 pp
14-2
L1
Current streak
W2
26
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Green: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Ruffy: 4 sig / 0 TD
King Green
Mauricio Ruffy
59
Sig strikes landed
63
95
Sig strikes attempted
130
57
Total strikes landed
61
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
82s
Control time
19s
Method
Decision
26%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
King Green
35-18-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
26 fights · 13-11
Last 5
L
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Gre…
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Mauricio Ruffy
14-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic
—
W
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
—