Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Austen Lane
Mario Pinto
26%
74%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 1"
79"
37
Age
Δ 10y
27
W1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Lane: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
Pinto: 13 sig / 0 TD
Austen Lane
Mario Pinto
22
Sig strikes landed
36
38
Sig strikes attempted
56
42
Total strikes landed
63
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
219s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Austen Lane
14-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
4 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Pe…
—
L
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
Blue corner
Mario Pinto
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27