Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Danny Barlow
Sam Patterson
52%
48%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
10-2
Career record
Δ 4 pp
15-3-1
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Barlow: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Patterson: 18 sig / 0 TD
Danny Barlow
Sam Patterson
32
Sig strikes landed
38
61
Sig strikes attempted
93
42
Total strikes landed
44
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
46s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
40%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Danny Barlow
"LeftHand2God"
10-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spi…
—
W
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria
—
Blue corner
W2
Sam Patterson
15-3-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2
—
W
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Ples…
—
L
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3
—