Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Danny Silva
Lucas Almeida
64%
36%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
12-2
Career record
Δ 10 pp
16-5
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Silva: 82 sig / 1 TD ·
Almeida: 74 sig / 0 TD
Danny Silva
Lucas Almeida
40
Sig strikes landed
43
100
Sig strikes attempted
88
62
Total strikes landed
52
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.5
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
194s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Danny Silva
"El Puma"
12-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Ty…
—
Blue corner
W1
Lucas Almeida
16-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
L
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ca…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—