Main
Lightweight
Nasrat Haqparast vs Esteban Ribovics
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Nasrat Haqparast
Esteban Ribovics
57%
43%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
19-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
16-3
W4
Current streak
W3
13
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Haqparast: 135 sig / 1 TD ·
Ribovics: 147 sig / 0 TD
Nasrat Haqparast
Esteban Ribovics
79
Sig strikes landed
74
179
Sig strikes attempted
154
79
Total strikes landed
66
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
49s
Control time
23s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Nasrat Haqparast
19-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuiva…
—
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
Blue corner
W3
Esteban Ribovics
"El Gringo"
16-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nasc…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
L
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane
—