Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rob Font
Jean Matsumoto
33%
67%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
38
Age
Δ 12y
26
23-10
Career record
Δ 20 pp
18-2
W1
Current streak
W2
18
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Font: 95 sig / 0 TD ·
Matsumoto: 77 sig / 7 TD
Rob Font
Jean Matsumoto
75
Sig strikes landed
69
152
Sig strikes attempted
153
79
Total strikes landed
82
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.1
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
71s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rob Font
23-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
18 fights · 11-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Ts…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
Blue corner
W2
Jean Matsumoto
18-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curt…
—