Prelims1
Featherweight
Andre Fili vs Melquizael Costa
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
·Climate Pledge Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Andre Fili
Melquizael Costa
34%
66%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
35
Age
Δ 6y
28
26-13
Career record
Δ 10 pp
27-8
W1
Current streak
W1
23
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Fili: 7 sig / 1 TD ·
Costa: 27 sig / 0 TD
Andre Fili
Melquizael Costa
39
Sig strikes landed
44
93
Sig strikes attempted
97
58
Total strikes landed
61
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
100s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Andre Fili
"Touchy"
26-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
23 fights · 12-10
Last 5
W
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Melquizael Costa
"The Dalmatian"
27-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutie…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno…
—
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—