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Prelims1 Light Heavyweight

Ion Cutelaba vs Ibo Aslan

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song ·Climate Pledge Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Ion Cutelaba
Ibo Aslan
45% 55%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
21-11-1
Career record
Δ 15 pp
15-4
W1
Current streak
W2
17
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Cutelaba: 14 sig / 2 TD · Aslan: 15 sig / 0 TD
Ion Cutelaba
Ibo Aslan
34
Sig strikes landed
47
80
Sig strikes attempted
95
42
Total strikes landed
59
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.0
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
63s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
8%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ion Cutelaba

"The Hulk"
21-11-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 17 fights · 7-9
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
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L UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
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W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. A…
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L UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
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L UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
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Blue corner
W2

Ibo Aslan

"The Last Ottoman"
15-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
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W UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs…
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