Prelims1
Welterweight
Gabriel Bonfim vs Khaos Williams
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gabriel Bonfim
Khaos Williams
73%
27%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
20-1
Career record
Δ 18 pp
17-5
W1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Bonfim: 35 sig / 4 TD ·
Williams: 20 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Bonfim
Khaos Williams
47
Sig strikes landed
57
114
Sig strikes attempted
132
60
Total strikes landed
73
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.9
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
100s
Control time
50s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Gabriel Bonfim
"Marretinha"
20-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Le…
—
W
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
—
W
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
Blue corner
W2
Khaos Williams
"The OxFighter"
17-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
—
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—