Prelims1
Flyweight
Rafael Estevam vs Jesus Aguilar
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Estevam
Jesus Aguilar
76%
24%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 6"
62"
28
Age
Δ 0y
29
15-1
Career record
Δ 17 pp
13-4
W1
Current streak
W3
1
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Estevam: 11 sig / 11 TD ·
Aguilar: 35 sig / 2 TD
Rafael Estevam
Jesus Aguilar
17
Sig strikes landed
11
27
Sig strikes attempted
27
42
Total strikes landed
24
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
255s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
45%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rafael Estevam
"Macapa"
15-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
—
Blue corner
W3
Jesus Aguilar
13-4
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Roy…
—
W
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodrig…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spiv…
—