Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Raul Rosas Jr.
Vince Morales
86%
14%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
20
Age
Δ 14y
34
13-1
Career record
Δ 36 pp
16-12
W3
Current streak
L4
5
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rosas Jr.: 20 sig / 4 TD ·
Morales: 17 sig / 1 TD
Raul Rosas Jr.
Vince Morales
41
Sig strikes landed
27
92
Sig strikes attempted
83
59
Total strikes landed
51
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.3
5.0
Takedowns attempted
0.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
222s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Raul Rosas Jr.
"El Nino Problema"
13-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
21
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. She…
—
L
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
—
W
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
—
Blue corner
L4
Vince Morales
"Vandetta"
16-12
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 3-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Sa…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—