Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
David Martinez
Saimon Oliveira
71%
29%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
27
Age
Δ 7y
34
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Martinez: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Oliveira: 7 sig / 0 TD
David Martinez
Saimon Oliveira
41
Sig strikes landed
30
78
Sig strikes attempted
67
58
Total strikes landed
40
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
146s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
David Martinez
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
L2
Saimon Oliveira
18-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—